000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 15N113W AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 300 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS PREVENTED THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KT WITH A CRYOSAT PASS SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 17N115W 1004 MB WED AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 18N117W 1000 MB THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE 1014 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLORES WAS NEAR 31N123W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SE. THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE WAS NEAR 23N138W. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS APPARENT. SCATTEROMETER SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT AROUND THE LOW CENTER. CRYOSAT SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT LINGERING IN THE AREA FROM 19N TO 25N W OF 136W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WED...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. A 1011 MB LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 08N93W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 80W N OF 06N MOVING W AROUND 20-25 KT. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE WAVE BUT SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 119W- 129W. ...DISCUSSION... THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST TO MAZATLAN BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MEET 15-17 SECOND PERIOD W-NW SWELL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF THE GALAPAGOS. THE SWELL IS PRIMARILY FROM THE S E OF 110W AND FROM THE SE W OF 110W. THESE 7-9 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 05N BETWEEN 82W-135W BY THU AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER