000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUL 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N112W AND IS MOVING 
NORTHWESTWARD 06 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N 
TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 119W. UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE TIME THAN  
EXPECTED. THIS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION. THE WIND SHEAR STILL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THERE 
IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CYCLONIC 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS ARE BEING 
OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THE SEA HEIGHTS 
WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 17 FEET WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE TO NEAR 16N114W 1006 MB WED WITH CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING 
TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
CENTER...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FEET. THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER...OR POSSIBLE CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 17N116W 
1002 MB THU WITH 30 TO 40 KT GALE CONDITIONS FROM 13N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 120W...AND SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. PLEASE 
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS 
FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLORES IS NEAR 
32N123W...N OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 
22N138W. IT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS APPARENT. THE LOW CENTER IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N92W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 
100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 12N115W TO 09N125W. ITCZ IS FROM 09N125W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE S OF LINE FROM 02S82W TO 
00N100W TO 04N120W TO 00N135W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
9 FT ARE PRIMARILY IN MIXED S...AND SW SWELL. THIS SWELL IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REACH 12N...TO 
INCLUDE THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... DRAINAGE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED 
TO RESUME ON WED NIGHT RESULTING IN 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W ON THURSDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. 

$$ 
FORMOSA