000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201534 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N108.5W MOVING NW AT 8 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUE... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 06N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 08N127W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES HAS MOVED N OF AREA AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N121.5W. A WEAK HIGH PRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE WATERS AND IS SITUATED NEAR 24N118W. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST REGION ON TUE. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR 20N136W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THIS AREA BY LATE TODAY. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION MAINLY NW OF LINE FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W. SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THIS AREA BY LATE TODAY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF 00N W OF 100W...AND S OF A LINE FROM 00N120W TO 05N125W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE FARTHER N REACHING THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO MAINLY E OF 100W BY LATE TUE. PULSING WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. $$ GR