000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N108W AND IS MOVING W AT 9 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE AND N QUADRANT WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N111W TO 12N111W TO 14N106W WITH INTERMITTENT BANDING FEATURES AND A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. CYCLONIC 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE E AND WITHIN 210 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. THE LOW...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 11N110W 1007 MB EARLY MON WITH CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT GALE FORCE WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT OVER THE SW QUADRANT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 12N112.5W 1006 MB ON MON NIGHT WITH 35-45 KT GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT THE SW QUADRANT...AND SEAS BUILDING 11-17 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR 14N114W LATE TUE. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 30N121W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1005 MB. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE N OF 32N AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS ANALYZED AT 1007 MB NEAR 20N136W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W-NW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND WITHIN 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING SWELLS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 21N137W ON MON...AND JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N140.5W LATE TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-8 FT WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 06N BETWEEN 94-96W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 13N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA AT 10N74W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS EXTREME NW COLOMBIA AND OVER THE EPAC TO NEAR 05N81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LOST IDENTITY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 100W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N123W AND WIGGLES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04-10N E OF 92W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N115W TO 08N130W. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 113-126W. REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-130W ON MON AND ADVANCE N AGAIN ON TUE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON WED NIGHT AND THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT....AND THEN AGAIN ON WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A SWATH OF 6-8 FT PROPAGATING WSW TO NEAR 10.5N90W EACH MORNING. $$ NELSON