000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N107W AND IS MOVING NW  
AT 8 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT 
WITH THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN BANDS WITH VERY HIGH 
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 
AT 20-30 KT WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. 
THE LOW...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 
NEAR 12N110.5W 1008 MB ON MON WITH CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 
30-40 KT GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT OVER THE SW 
QUADRANT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 
13N112W ON MON NIGHT WITH 30-40 KT STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 
70 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND SEAS 
BUILDING 10-15 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL STORM 
STRENGTH NEAR 14N114W ON TUE. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 28N120W AND 
IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM OVER 
THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AND MOVE N OF 32N AND DISSIPATE ON TUE. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS ANALYZED AT 1007 MB NEAR 20N136W 
AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W-NW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM SE 
AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY 
DUE TO MIXING SWELLS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 21N137W 
ON MON...AND NEAR 22N139W ON TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 
KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BY THEN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 06N BETWEEN 94-98W WITH 
ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 
12N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 10N76W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW  
ACROSS EXTREME NW COLOMBIA TO THE COAST AT 08N78W...THEN WIGGLES 
SW TO 06N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO 08N97W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.  
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH FORMS AGAIN 
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 10N118W AND CONTINUES W TO 
08N140W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ.   

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW AND 
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 
03-10N E OF 90W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N92W TO 05N107W...NEAR THE LOW AND W SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N113W TO 
11N117W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N120W 
TO 08N132W.  
  
...DISCUSSION...

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICS S 
OF 06N BETWEEN 112-125W. REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE 
ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-130W ON MON AND ADVANCE N AGAIN ON 
TUE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20   
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT....AND 
THEN AGAIN ON WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A SWATH OF 6-8 FT 
PROPAGATING WSW TO NEAR 10.590W EACH MORNING.

$$ 
NELSON