000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191536 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N106W MOVING NW AT 8 KT. THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 08.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. ANOTHER CLUSTER WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 107 AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER GIVES THIS LOW PRES A HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W N OF 07N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 95W...AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N84W TO 08N92W THEN RESUMES AT 08N118W TO 07N124W TO 10N137. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF TROUGH TO 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 06N122W. ...DISCUSSION... THE LAST ADVISORY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 27N119.5W. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER...WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 12-14 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NE WATERS. AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR 19.5N136.5W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITHIN AROUND 90 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. A RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF LOW CENTER. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE NOTED MAINLY IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND PARTICULARLY FROM 17N TO 22N W OF 135W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THIS AREA BY LATE MON. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL ARE AFFECTING THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 130W. THESE SEA HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN 24-36 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT S OF 02S W OF 104W IN 24 HOURS...AND S OF 00N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND ALSO S OF A LINE FROM 00N120W TO 04N123W TO 00N134W IN 48 HOURS. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 0600- 1200 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. $$ GR