000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES AT 19/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.0N 119.3W OR ABOUT 360 NM TO THE WEST OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW CENTER IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES...14 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOME ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 09N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N103W TO 07N105W TO 08N109W TO 08N110W TO 10N110W TO 12N109W. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 11N107W IN 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY...AND NEAR 13N111W IN 48 HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE 1006 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR 19.5N137W...CURRENTLY LACKING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE COMBINED SEAS RANGE FROM 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL SURROUND THE SYSTEM FROM 14N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 132W...AND COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ARE ACROSS THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 32N FROM 130W WESTWARD IN MIXING NE AND SE SWELL. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 20N137W ON SUNDAY...AND NEAR 21N138W ON MONDAY. THE COMBINED SEAS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED ON MONDAY TO 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W...AND FROM 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 27N TO 32N FROM 137W WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE EARLIER 100W/104W TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ABSORBED/IT HAS MERGED WITH THE 1007 MB 08N107W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 08N84W TO 12N95W TO 11N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND WITHIN 360 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PUSH 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 122W...THE SOUTHERLY SWELL ALSO WILL MIX WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALSO IS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF 04N TO THE EAST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE COVERAGE OF 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH...ONLY FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 101W AND 127W BY MONDAY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 93W AND 128W BY TUESDAY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH...REACHING 06N FROM 130W EASTWARD...AFTER MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 100W EASTWARD. THIS MEANS THAT THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH THE COASTLINES OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MONDAY FROM THE SUNRISE HOURS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND STOPPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAME WIND REGIME WILL START AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY...CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND THEN FALL OFF AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. $$ MT