000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.0W OR ABOUT 285 MILES WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AT 0300 UTC MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 14 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS MOTION TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THEN TURN N AND SLOW SOME ON MON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL S OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N118W TO 23N113W. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N106W. OVERALL THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 10N107W ON SUN...AND NEAR 12.5N110W ON MON. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 19.5N137W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB AND CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL SURROUND THE SYSTEM FROM 14-25N W OF 132W... AND COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 25-32N W OF 130W IN MIXING NE AND SE SWELL. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 20N137W ON SUN...AND NEAR 21N138W ON MON. BY THEN COMBINED SEAS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 20-25N BETWEEN 136-140W...AND 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 27-32N W OF 137W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 10N BETWEEN 88-90W WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 06N BETWEEN 100-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF 08.5N104W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N102W. THIS WAVE WILL SOON MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 08N106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N84W...THEN CONTINUES W-NW TO 11N102W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N BETWEEN 80- 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 08N99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N110W TO 10N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01-03N BETWEEN 130- 140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY REFORM. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO 10N93W WITH THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL ALSO MIXING WITH NW SWELL. S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IS ALSO NOTED S OF 04N E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THESE SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND ADVANCE N AGAIN ON TUE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA N WED NIGHT AND THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. $$ NELSON