000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 118.4W OR ABOUT 315 MILES SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOME TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN SLOW ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 20N137W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 30 NM OF 21.5N137W. N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE CENTER WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT...AND 7-10 FT SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23-32N W OF 130W IN MIXING NE AND SE SWELL. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 19.5N137W ON SUN...AND NEAR 21N137W ON MON. BY THEN COMBINED SEAS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6- 8 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 20-24N BETWEEN 135- 140W...AND 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 27-32N W OF 130W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N106W AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL BANDING FEATURES. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N104W TO 09N107W. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 10N108W ON SUN...AND NEAR 12.5N109W ON MON. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 10N BETWEEN 87-90W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN N OF 09N WITHIN 240 NM OF WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 13N99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS NW PANAMA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W...THEN CONTINUES W-NW TO 11N102W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 03N BETWEEN 80-103W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N105W TO 10N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01-03N BETWEEN 130-140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY REFORM. ...DISCUSSION... CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO 10N93W WITH THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL ALSO MIXING WITH NW SWELL. S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IS ALSO NOTED S OF 04N E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THESE SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND ADVANCE N AGAIN ON TUE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA N WED NIGHT AND THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. $$ NELSON