000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 118.0W AT 18/1500 
UTC. DOLORES WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF DOLORES. 
DOLORES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER 
TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. SWELLS THAT ARE 
BEING GENERATED BY DOLORES CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE 
WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THEY ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE 
SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP 
CURRENTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 
KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE ON DOLORES.

...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 08N105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SE 
AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W. RECENT 
ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVER THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE OUT TO 240 NM FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THERE IS 
CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS NEXT WEEK. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20N138W. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED 
TO MEANDER OVER THE SAME AREA WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. WINDS IN 
THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE NOTED WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 60 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WHILE SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE...WITH HIGHEST 
SEAS OVER THE N QUADRANT. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
BY MON MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 99W S OF 17N. THIS WAVE WILL MERGE 
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE 
ON SUNDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    
        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N95W TO 11N99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF THE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR IS 
MOVING NORTHWARD BUT 8 FT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

$$ 
AL