000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS NEAR 21.8N 116.8W...OR ABOUT 330 NM...TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO IN MEXICO...AT 18/0900 UTC...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES 9 KT. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 117W AND 118W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY DOLORES CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20.0N 137.4W...OR ABOUT 1540 NM TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS DRIFTING SW...OR 225 DEG AT 2 KT. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 TO 33 KT WITHIN 60 NM SE AND WITHIN 330 NM NW SEMICIRCLES...AND SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 137W AND 139W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 08N105W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE LINE FROM 03N102W TO 03N106W TO 05N107W TO 07N108W TO 11N105W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN GRADUALLY AND SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH...INCREASING THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 FEET WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N ALONG 97W/99W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION..SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N811W TO 10N89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 09N113W TO 08N120W TO TO 13N129W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N135W TO 19N127W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...IS FROM 03S120W TO 05S96W TO 06N81W SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W ON SATURDAY...AS SOME NORTHERLY SWELLS ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM DOLORES. THESE SEAS GENERALLY WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FEET REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL EAST-TO- NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUNDAY NIGHT. $$ MT