000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180240 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.8W OR ABOUT 355 MILES SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 9 KT. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NW ON SAT AND THEN TO THE N-NW BY SAT NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SAT EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... THE REMNANT LOW OF ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20.3N 137.3W...OR ABOUT 1765 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS DRIFTING SW...OR 225 DEG AT 2 KT. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY FLARES WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 06N103W AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N101W TO 12N106W. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN INCREASING THE SW FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 95-98W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA THEN TURNS W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN SLIGHTLY NW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N78W...AND THEN WIGGLES W TO 10N95W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 12N94W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N110W TO 08N118W TO 08N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N111W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N114W TO 05N125W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 08N140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY REFORM.A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N110W TO 08N118W TO 08N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N111W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N114W TO 05N125W. ...DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N135W TO 19N127W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 00N100W TO 05N81W...EXCEPT IN THE N LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT EFFECTING THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95-120W ON SAT AS SOME N SWELLS ARRIVE IN TON VALID 0230 UTC SAT JUL 18... HIS AREA FROM DOLORES. THESE SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND ADVANCE N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID WEEK. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON