000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.1W OR ABOUT 340 MILES SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW ON SAT AND THEN TO THE N-NW ON SAT NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUN. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ENRIQUE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGAIN NEAR 20.5N 137.1W...OR ABOUT 1750 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS DRIFTING W...OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.... THEN MEANDER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY FLARES WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SAT. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 05N104W AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N101W TO 12N106W. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN INCREASING THE SW FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 08N BETWEEN 93-97W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N107W TO 09N116W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA THEN TURNS W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN SLIGHTLY NW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N78W...AND THEN WIGGLES W TO 10N95W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N81W TO 13N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 10N139W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY REFORM AFTER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISSIPATES. ...DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N135W TO 19N127W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 00N100W TO 05N81W...EXCEPT IN THE N LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT EFFECTING THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95-120W ON SAT AS SOME N SWELLS ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM DOLORES. THESE SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN RECEIVE A REINFORCING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND ADVANCE N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID WEEK. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON