000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES IS NEAR 21.4N 115.1W AT 17/1500 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 08 KNOTS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. TWO ALTIMETER PASSES THROUGH DOLORES AT 1320 AND 1400Z WELL DEPICTED THE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS STILL PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL STORM. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY...TO A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. SWELLS THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20.5N 137.0W AT 17/1500 UTC. ENRIQUE IS MOVING W...OR 270 DEG 03 KT. ENRIQUE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AND CAUSE 15-20 KT EASTERLIES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM OF THE LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 92W FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0%...OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...30%...WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 09N78W TO 09N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 03N E OF 96W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM 30N134W EASTWARD TO 28N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE IS ONLY ENOUGH TO FRESH BREEZE NE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA NORTH OF THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7 TO 9 FEET SEA HEIGHTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 03N SOUTHWARD E OF 100W. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING 05N E OF 115W BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ...AND THEN FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 100W AND 120W ON SUNDAY. $$ LANDSEA