000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES IS NEAR 21.2N 114.3W AT 17/0900 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 09 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...TO LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE ON SATURDAY. SWELLS THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS NEAR 20.6N 136.8W AT 17/0900 UTC. ENRIQUE IS MOVING WNW...OR 290 DEG 05 KT. ENRIQUE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW SOON AND TURN TO THE WEST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 135W AND 137W. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 08N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO 15-20 KT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W FROM 15N IN GUATEMALA SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 07N78W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO 07N81W AND 08N89W...AND TO 08N100W...AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 108W AND 122W...AROUND HURRICANE DOLORES. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 122W AND 140W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N137W TO 29N133W TO 24N126W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR WEST-TO-NORTHWEST TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7 TO 9 FEET SEA HEIGHTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND 103W IN GENERAL...FROM 03N SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING O5N/06N FROM 96W EASTWARD EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND THEN FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND 122W EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY SUNSET ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY WILL GROW IN ORDER TO COVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W...AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 104W...AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THE END OF THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...FOR THE SAME 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE GIVING 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 22N TO 25N. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GO DOWN...AND PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL EAST-TO- NORTHEAST 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL START DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE SUNRISE AND NOONTIME HOURS OF MONDAY...AND THEN SLOWING DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEAS BY LATE MONDAY...AND THEN FINALLY WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MT