000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170241 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.2W OR ABOUT 255 MILES SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT GUSTS TO 110 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 15 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD TO WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N114W TO 16N106W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE ON SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 136.3W...OR ABOUT 1700 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING NW...OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. ENRIQUE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW SOON AND TURN TO THE W. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON FRI. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 07N99.5W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N90W TO 07N106W. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 12-16N BETWEEN 96- 104W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N89W TO OVER EL SALVADOR AND HAS MOVED W AT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N89W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W AND WIGGLES W TO 09N96W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE TROPICAL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N120W TO 06N130W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY REFORM AFTER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISSIPATES. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N133W TO 20N126W...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR W-NW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 03N E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLAND. EXPECT THESE ENHANCED SEAS TO SPREAD N REACHING ALONG O5N E OF 97W ON FRI...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. BY SAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT WILL REACH ALONG 5N BETWEEN 95-122W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 25N WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON