000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161555 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.8W OR ABOUT 210 NM...385 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 100 KT GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 30 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD WITHIN 60 NM IN THE N AND 90 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NM E QUADRANT. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 135.5W OR ABOUT 1440 NM...2665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING WNW...OR 295 DEG AT 7 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. ENRIQUE HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W. WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW BY LATE FRI. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH SEAS DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 99W/100W WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 09N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N E OF 90W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 41N144W TO 25N122W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR W TO WNW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N130W TO 02S90W TO 01N82W. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY SEAS TO SLOWLY CREEP NORTHWARD AND EXTEND S OF A LINE FROM 03S130W TO 05N95W TO 02S91W TO 02S83W BY EARLY SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 26N THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI AS WEAKENING HURRICANE DOLORES PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ COBB