000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU JUL 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W OR  
ABOUT 230 NM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 
305 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 20 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 106W AND 
110W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
STORM WITHIN 3 DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE 
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 134.7W OR ABOUT 
1380 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING W-NW...OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT AND THIS 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. ENRIQUE HAS 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER 
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ENRIQUE. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 
AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND  MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR 
HIGH SEAS DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 16N ALONG ABOUT 99W. PATCHES 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 
101W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 09N97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N E OF 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 41N144W TO 
25N122W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE 
ON THEIR W-NW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 
FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N130W TO 02S90W TO 
01N82W. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY SEAS TO S OF A LINE FROM FROM 
02N135W TO 03S105W TO 02N94W TO 01S91W TO 04N83W LATE THU AND S 
OF LINE FROM 00N135W TO 05N115W TO 06N81W LATE FRI.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS 
OF 7-10 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 26N THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI.

$$ 
FORMOSA