000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160243 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 110.9W OR ABOUT 270 MILES SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 5 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS A 20 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 23N112W TO 14N107W. DOLORES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.1W OR ABOUT 1580 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING W-NW...OR 285 DEG AT 6 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. ENRIQUE IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM N AND WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY THU. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH SEAS DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 16N ALONG ABOUT 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS NEAR THE WAVE AND DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EPAC LATE THU. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 08N101W LATE FRI...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W AND CONTINUES W ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...AND CONTINUES W ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO 07N100W...THEN TURNS SW TO 10N104W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 01-08.5N E OF 88W AND WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05-13N BETWEEN 91-100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM OF 04N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N132W TO 07N140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAY BE REFORMING. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N130W TO 18N123W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR W-NW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N130W TO 02S90W TO 01N82W. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY SEAS TO S OF A LINE FROM FROM 02N135W TO 03S105W TO 02N94W TO 01S91W TO 04N83W LATE THU AND S OF LINE FROM 00N135W TO 05N115W TO 06N81W LATE FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 26N THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REMNANT 6-8 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N87W TO 10.5N88.5W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT AND 20- 25 KT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. $$ NELSON