000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.6W OR ABOUT 295 MILES S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING W- NW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT WHICH HAS THE 15 NM WIDE EYE APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE 15 NM WIDE EYE OUTWARD WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N112W TO 14N106W. INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AREA POSSIBLE TONIGHT THEN CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THU. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 133.6W OR ABOUT 1550 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING W-NW...OR 295 DEG AT 7 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. ENRIQUE IS A MINIMAL STORM STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM N AND WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THU. ENRIQUE HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH SEAS DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS NW TO 09N92W...THEN SW TO 08N103W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 01-08N TO THE E OF 85W...AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N90W TO 06N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N118W TO 06N123W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELEAZAR FROM 05-14N BETWEEN 115- 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N132W TO 07N140W WHERE THE ITCZ MAT BE REFORMING. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES FROM 32N130W TO 18N123W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE ON THEIR W-NW TRACKS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT SEAS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N130W TO 02N83W. EXPECT THESE SOUTHERLY SEAS S OF A LINE FROM 02N135W TO 04N83W ON THU AND S OF LINE FROM 00N135W TO 06N82W ON FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 26N THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REMNANT 6-8 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N87W TO 10.5N88.5W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS NOCTURNAL E-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT NIGHT AND 20- 25 KT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. $$ NELSON