000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED JUL 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.8W OR ABOUT 287 NM S 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 6 
KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 
106W AND 112W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE 
CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP 
CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 132.1W OR ABOUT 
1220 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING W-NW...OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND WIND SHEAR 
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BEGIN TO AFFECT 
ENRIQUE. THE FORECAST IS FOR ENRIQUE TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENRIQUE HAS A LARGER 
AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. REFER TO LATEST 
NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND MIAHSFEP1/FZPN03 FOR HIGH 
SEAS DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
07N78W TO 06N90W TO 08N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 84W.  
  
...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONE FROM 39N149W TO 
25N123W...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW AS THE CYCLONES CONTINUE 
ON A W-NW TRACK. EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT 
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY 
BUILD TO 13 FT ON THU WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF 8 FT SEAS 
REACHING ALONG 26N ON THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE SHOWS NOCTURNAL E-NE 20-25 KT DRAINAGE
WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUN NIGHT.
 
$$ 
FORMOSA