000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.2W AT 1500 UTC MOVING 
WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 15N 
TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF W MEXICO FROM MICHOACAN TO NAYARIT THROUGH 
THIS EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE MAY CAUSE LIFE 
THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST 
NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.6W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1003 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. THERE HAS 
BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER 
DURING THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 48 
HOURS HIGH SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN 
THE SYSTEM. ENRIQUE HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SPIN DOWN GRADUALLY AS THE 
CENTER DISSIPATES. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS DUE TO TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. A MONSOON TROUGH 
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF 100W BY WED. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N153W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 35N140W TO 22N117W. 
THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE NW QUADRANT OF 
DOLORES AND THE N SEMICIRCLE OF ENRIQUE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL REMAIN WEAK 
THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS INCREASING 
TO 15-20 KT IN PAPAGAYO AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL