000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.5W AT 14/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT GUSTS TO 
85 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH 
DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AS IT 
MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
SW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM MICHOACAN TO NAYARIT. THIS WILL 
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS 
GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS 
WELL. THESE SWELLS WILL BRING LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS 
AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 129.0W AT 14/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 
45 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WELL 
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE 
CENTER FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 48 
HOURS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD 
TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN INTO SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS. 
THEREFORE THERE IS NO ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N153W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 25N120W. THIS IS 
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE NW QUADRANT OF DOLORES 
AND THE N SEMICIRCLE OF ENRIQUE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ALLOWING 
DOLORES TO TRACK WNW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE AREAS 
NOT AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATIONS. EXPECT VERY 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL REMAIN WEAK 
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA