000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.5W AT 
13/2100 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 
110W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAIN 
BANDS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM 
MICHOACAN TO NAYARIT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AS WELL. THESE SWELLS WILL BRING 
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.6W AT 13/2100 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 320 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM E AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 
07N129W TO 11N123W. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM REACHING 
40 KT LATER TONIGHT. BEYOND 48 HOURS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN INTO SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS. 
THEREFORE THERE IS NO ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N155W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N127W TO 20N110W. 
THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE NW QUADRANT OF 
DOLORES AND THE N SEMICIRCLE OF ENRIQUE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ALLOWING 
DOLORES TO TRACK WNW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE AREAS 
NOT AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATIONS. EXPECT VERY 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BY 
THIS EVENING. AFTERWARDS WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. LATEST 
GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AGAIN LATER IN 
THE WEEK. 
 
$$ 
AL