000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.0W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND IT IS EXPECTED 
TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 
103W AND 108W. ALTHOUGH DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY 
CAUSE FLOODING IN COASTAL MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY 
THE CYCLONE CAN CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.6W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1001 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W 
AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N122W TO 06N130W. CONDITIONS ARE 
LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL 
FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ21 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORMS DOLORES 
AND ENRIQUE. MONSOON TROUGH LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF 95W BY TUE.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM 
33N133W TO 21N112W. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON 
THE NW AND NE QUADRANTS OF DOLORES AND ENRIQUE RESPECTIVELY. THE 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...ALLOWING DOLORES TO TRACK WNW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN 
THE AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATIONS. EXPECT 
VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING LATER IN THE 
WEEK BETWEEN 95W-100W.

WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS DOLORES MOVES AWAY 
FROM THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN DIMINISH. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS E-NE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL