000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON JUL 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 13/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REACH 
HURRICANE STRENGTH MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. THE 
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLORES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO NAYARIT. THIS 
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 
SWELLS GENERATED BY DOLORES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS 
CONDITIONS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND 
WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.0W AT 13/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM SW AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE 05N133W TO 07N125W TO 12N121W TO 16N123W. THE SECOND AREA 
OF CONVECTION OF THE FORMER MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE SYSTEM AS A SPIRAL BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVERNIGHT. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR 
ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1019 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES.
 
WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL 
AS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
AL