000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE T.D. SIX-E TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOLORES LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 12/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY LATE ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 180 NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DOLORES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES THROUGH WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY DOLORES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS CONDITIONS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14N125W IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 12/1600 UTC. AT THIS TIME...T.D. SIX-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 125.3W OR ABOUT 1040 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 21N124W. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY... AND CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES AND THE LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE...ONLY A COUPLE OF MONSOON TROUGH SECTORS ARE NOTED. ONE FROM 09N94W TO 07N93W...AND THE SECOND ONE FROM 10N129W TO 05N140W. THERE IS NO ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS COVERING MAINLY THE FORECAST REGION N OF 21N W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR 14N125W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...PARTICULARLY W OF THE TROUGH ATTACHED TO THE LOW CENTER FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES IS HELPING FUNNEL FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MAINLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AS DOLORES MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA. EXPECT ALSO PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. $$ GR