000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.5W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS...AND REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY MONDAY. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 
94W AND 102W. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 
116W AND 128W. SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM 
HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE 
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THERE HAS BEEN A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SEVERAL 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THUS THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 19N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN 
WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15-25 KT THE NEXT 
48 HOURS N OF 14N-15N IN THIS AREA...WITH MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE EPAC RESULTING IN 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE JET 
WILL FINALLY WEAKEN BY SUN WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN EVENING.  

$$ 
AL