000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 13N98W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N77 TO 09N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N98W TO 09N102W TO 13N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
03N TO 09N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 90W AND 
99W...AND FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N161W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N98W...MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS HELPING WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS SAT BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO 25 KT SAT NIGHT. 

THE CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR EPAC. THIS IS 
HELPING FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
PEAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND BE 
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
FORMOSA