000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI JUL 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 11N96W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 07N85W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N96W TO 08.5N109W TO 10N124W TO 07.5N132W TO 07.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 100W ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 
11N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 122W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N162W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 20N 
AND W OF 125W. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N96W AND MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS HELPING FOR WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR EPAC. THIS IS 
HELPING FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
PEAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND BE 
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
AL