000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100942 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUL 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N123W. THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVECTION IS EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN FOCUSSED OVER A COHERENT CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE...40%...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 07N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-100W. THIS WAVE IS APPARENT IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE ALBANY TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 08N TO 18N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM ANY OF OUR OBSERVATIONAL OR MODEL- BASED TOOLS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 07N TO 17N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 08N78W TO 07N100W 09N106W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N123W 1008 MB TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W... AND FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N142W TO 26N115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 23N BETWEEN 108W-140W...COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO 8N100W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 100W-110W. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 95W AND THE TUTT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. AN AREA OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 107W-122W. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO BE GENERATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE EAST OF 10N120W. THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 08 FT N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 96W. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE TO 10-12 FT SATURDAY AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS ARE SPILLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA