000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 9 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 10N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W-95W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 09N-15N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N-13N. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W BETWEEN 09N-16N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 08N83W TO 10N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N122W 1008 MB TO 09N131W. ITCZ IS FROM 09N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 24N130W TO 22N113W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXCEPT FOR FRESH NE WINDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 125W-130W ASSOCIATED WITH A PRES GRADIENT NW OF A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N122W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 22N BETWEEN 111W-138W...COVERING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 27N95W IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO 9N100W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 100W-109W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 140W S OF 16N IS MOVING W OF THE AREA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 110W-125W. AN AREA OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 09N BETWEEN 105W-125W. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN MONSOONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SMALLER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE LOW NEAR 08N122W FRI WHILE THE LARGE SCALE SWELL TRAIN SUBSIDES FURTHER TO 6-7 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W PASSES S OF THE AREA. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 15N TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN PICK UP AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE EASTERLY AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N100W. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT FRI...INCREASING TO 10-11 FT SAT AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WILL PULSE THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAX SEAS WILL BE AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 87W-91W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CYCLONIC VORTICITY GENERATED BY E-NE WINDS DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO AND N-NE WINDS DOWNWIND FROM TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMBINE WITH A PRE-EXISTING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO FORM A LARGE TROPICAL LOW NEAR 09N101W BY SAT WHICH HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR THIS REASON DESCRIPTIONS OF THE WIND EVENTS FOR PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC... WHILE INITIALLY SEPARATE...WERE COMBINED INTO A SINGLE PARAGRAPH IN THE HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST BECAUSE THE WINDS AND SEAS FROM EACH MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA BEST DESCRIBED TOGETHER BY THE 36- 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS A THERMAL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 4-5 FT FRI MORNING. $$ MUNDELL