000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 17N113W 13N114W 09N115W. THIS WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. THE WAVE WILL MERGE WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTER THAT IS NEAR 08N120W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N00W TO 08N110W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 08N120W...TO 08N125W. THERE IS NO ITCZ. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W...AND FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 110W. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN LARGELY BY THE 17N113W 09N115W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 08N120W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 19N126W 25N134W BEYOND 32N144W. PERTURBATIONS ONE-AFTER-THE-OTHER IN THE WESTERN WATERS CONTINUE TO PROHIBIT AN ITCZ FROM REDEVELOPING UP THIS POINT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS WEAK AND IT IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM ELA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THAT IS FROM 18N TO 23N FROM 138W WESTWARD...AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FOUND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 100W AND 123W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY AND FALL TO LESS THAN 8 FEET IN ABOUT 42 HOURS OR SO. THIS SW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE... CURRENTLY IS AFFECTING THE FORECAST WATERS FROM MEXICO TO ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS A THERMAL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEEPENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20-25 KT BRIEFLY...BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 4-5 FT ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG CARIBBEAN JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR WESTWARD AS 101W DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO GENERATE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT STARTING THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. THE WIND SPEEDS EVENTUALLY WILL REACH TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING TO CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HELP TO PROPAGATE THIS REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WESTWARD. THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT DRIVEN BY THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT WILL ENHANCE FURTHER THIS AREA OF SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE VORTICITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP FOR A DEEPER AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 16N97W. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE INTERACTION FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP. $$ MT