000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUL 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N137W IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING AND 
A WIDE BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY 
SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY THIS 
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS S OF THE WAVE 
BETWEEN 102W-106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N101W TO 
06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 07N112W TO 04N120W TO 
05N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N130W 
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N...W OF 
115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N137W IS PRODUCING AN REGION OF 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT NE OF THE LOW NEAR 16N136W.
 
STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0250 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS 
CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 87.3W. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS 
WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS 
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM 
FROM THE AREA OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING NORTHWARD FROM 
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST...COVERING SOUTHERN 
WATERS BETWEEN 95W-120W THROUGH WED..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU 
AND FRI.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED 
TO TIGHTEN THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY 
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES S OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHERLY 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS N OF 15N THU...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY IN THE 
EVENING...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAX 
SEAS TO 8-9 FT ON FRIDAY.

$$
MUNDELL