000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N125W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT 
IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. 
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 
01N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 16N108W MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING AND GLOBAL 
MODEL INDICATED 850 MB  VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W.
 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N121W TO 16N120W MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 118W AND 
123W AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO 
MERGE WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW 
CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N93W TO 06N104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 
80W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE LOW REMAINS ON THE EASTERN 
EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N139W THEN WEST 
OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. 
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE LOW 
AT 14N139W...HOWEVER WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITHIN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 27N130W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES LOW LIES BENEATH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W. 

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL 
REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 91W DOWNSTREAM 
DURING THE DAY.

$$
HUFFMAN