000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE OF 1005 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W 
MOVING W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED 
TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY A 
KELVIN WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF 
CENTER IN THE EAST QUADRANT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 17N103W MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 
101W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N114W TO 16N114W MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W TO 07N94W TO 
10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
08N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W...AND FROM 
05N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SE TO NEAR 17N110W. A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.5N139W 
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW. 
THE FRESH WINDS ARE GENERATING 8 FT SEAS FROM 14N TO 18N W OF 
132W. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS DECREASED AND CONDITIONS 
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 
125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE 
HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO 
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A 
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ. 

THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT 
PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 93W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. 
ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

$$
HUFFMAN