000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH 
SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N 
AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE 
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR 
26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE 
TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS 
THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE 
CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO 
ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST. 
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED 
ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS 
CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E 
ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST 
TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END 
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF 
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W 
OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS 
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS 
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.
                   
GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL 
AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. 
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND 
94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N 
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.
 
$$ 
STRIPLING