000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291521 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ENTERING THE PACIFIC ALONG 80W N OF 06N THROUGH PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03N-08N E OF 85W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 06N INTO EL SALVADOR AND SW HONDURAS WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-12N AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-09N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 111W FROM 03N-13N. THIS WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 04N-10N...EXCEPT WITHIN WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W FROM 05N-15N WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 121W- 126W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 137W FROM 06N TO 16N. THIS WAS WAS MOVING W AROUND 25 KT. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS FROM 07N78W TO 05N83W TO 09N96W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N96W TO 08N100W TO 08N117W TO 05N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-104W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-133W. ...DISCUSSION... CONVECTION WAS PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 12N100W IS ENHANCING LIFT OF THE MOISTURE POOLED AT THE SURFACE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 32N138W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE SE TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ WAS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERALLY OVER THE AREA W OF 122W ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WAS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRIMARILY N OF 24N. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE N AND MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF 40N...WEAKENING THE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE TRADE WIND AREA AND NW AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A RESULT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS BROUGHT 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. MORE CONSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 80W...WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR W AS 94W TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. $$ SCHAUER