000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281522 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N-13N ALONG 104W MOVING W 15- 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N-13N ALONG 114W MOVING W 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N-15N ALONG 127W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 05N107W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N107W TO 08N122W TO 04N136W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-11N E OF 100W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 13N139W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX TO 12 HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER DAY AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONVECTION WAS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS E OF 100W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR 13N102W IS ENHANCING LIFT OF THE MOISTURE POOLED AT THE SURFACE. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 31N139W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE SE TO 17N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ WAS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERALLY OVER THE AREA FROM 12N-22N W OF 123W ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA WAS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW WINDS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRIMARILY N OF 24N. THE HIGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY OR POSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF 40N...WEAKENING THE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE TRADE WIND AREA AND NW AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS A RESULT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0324 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT N WINDS N THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S AS WELL AS TO THE SW WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W AND RIDGING OVER NORTHERN VERACRUZ WAS DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LIKELY PERSISTED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AWAY FROM THE AREA...BREAKING DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW 20-25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OBSERVED BY THE 0322 UTC ASCAT PASS WERE LIKELY PERPETUATED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY TO PULSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT AS STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR W AS 97W AS THE E-NE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO MIXED WITH CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. $$ SCHAUER