000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260946 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 83W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 12N BETWEEN 97-99W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT AND CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND WILL LIKELY SOON BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05-14N BETWEEN 116-118W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS PASSING UNDER AN AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR AND CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN PASSING UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WHICH CURRENTLY CONTINUES S OF 09N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08-17N BETWEEN 133-135W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 15N WITHIN 270 NM OF THE WAVE. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE WILL PASS UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR LATER TODAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N84W TO 08N102W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 10N124W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N98W TO 11N112W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED...EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 28N132W AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE N OF 23N W OF 127W WHERE VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N133W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DENSE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 14-21N TO THE W OF 132W...THEN TURNS NE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE AT 10N133W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120-140W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N93W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 10N87W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 13N111W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 95-113W WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE PASSING E ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95-105W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 14N102W. NE 5- 20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OBSERVED FROM 10-22N W OF 120W. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK AND EFFECT THE WATERS FROM 11-17N W OF 135W BY SAT NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10- 15 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURGE LATE TONIGHT...AND 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE WINDS ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 10N91W EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN ONLY 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE W TO AROUND 09N95W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. $$ NELSON