000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU JUN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN 
EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE 
IN THIS REGION FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS GAP WIND EVENT 
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W FROM 02N-11N MOVING W 
AT 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS 
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 04N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. A SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS 
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 
12N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 KT WINDS 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. 
 
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 130W EXTENDING FROM 09N TO 
18N MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING A REGION OF 
DRY AIR AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MAINLY 
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF 21N AND THE WAVE IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 07N93W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS NEAR 08N100W AND CONTINUES TO 09N109W...IT THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 06N118W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N130W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 126W AND FROM 04N TO 10N W OF 132W. 
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N
E OF 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
PULSING MAINLY E OF 92W WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE MARINE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...RESULTING IN 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO 
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N136W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE N-NW WATERS TO NEAR 24N120W. 
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 130W SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 15N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SW WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
NR