000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THIS GULF. A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS GAP WIND EVENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W FROM 03N-11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 04N-12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AS WELL AS THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE WAVE AXIS. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N128W TO 10N129W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOME INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTEROMETER DATA CLEARLY SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE...THAT DOMINATES THE N WATERS AND THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA FRESH NE WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N95W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 09N100W TO 09N111W TO 10N115W TO 06N125W TO 08N131W TO BEYOND 06N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NE WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 120W WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS ALSO INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD BUT SHOULD REMAIN N OF AREA. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT ESPECIALLY S OF 05S W OF 108W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE MAINLY E OF 90W DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE-E SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE SEAS. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 6-7 FT AROUND THE AZUERO PENINSULA. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ GR