000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED JUN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SHOWED 30 
KT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON GFS MODEL FORECAST...WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE BETWEEN 0300 AND 1200 
UTC TONIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY FACTOR BEING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS 
TO 30 KT LATE THU NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL 
SALVADOR TO COSTA RICA IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO CONVECTION IN 
DISCUSSION AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W FROM 02N-12N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW SAT IMAGERY. 
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AS DESCRIBED BELOW FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 04N-14N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 
RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TPW SAT IMAGERY. 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 10N-18N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DEPICTED IN TPW 
SAT IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A WIND SHIFT 
AT LOW LEVELS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WANING IT 
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 09N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 45 NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W EXTENDS A 
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS TO 20N...W OF 114W. ASCAT DATA 
SHOWS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND IS EVIDENT W OF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA N OF 30N...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 FT SEAS 
TO APPROACH 30N PRIMARILY FROM N-NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE...LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE EQUATOR W 
OF 110W THROUGH THU.
                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCED 
EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS TO PULSE E OF 90W DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL