000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG EASTERN MEXICO COMBINES WITH LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A BRIEF LULL IN THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT AND WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 89W FROM 05N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT S OF 12N. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS SUPPRESSED AND LIMITED WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 108W FROM 05N-15N MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT S OF 13N NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. NEARBY CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 118W FROM 09N-22N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A VERY DEEP MOIST LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WHICH IS DESCRIBED BELOW. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N88W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 05N107W TO 10N117W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W...AND ALSO WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE HIGH OF 1025 MB IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 23N110W. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND N OF THE ITCZ. THESE TRADES COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 11N-13N W OF 137W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH THE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS INDUCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TO THE S AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W BY WED BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE WED NIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR AND ALONG THE EQUATOR THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF AND DOWNWIND TO AROUND 90W MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT SPREADING SW-W REACHING 101W THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING/ RETRACTING TO AROUND 90W BY WED MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF AND AROUND THE AZUERO PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE EACH DAY DUE TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 6 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. $$ LEWITSKY