000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230243 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 88W N OF 08N TO ACROSS EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND N TO CENTRAL HONDURAS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW ANIMATION SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT CONFINED TO S OF 12N. THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA AND NW BELIZE HAS FILTERED DRIER AIR SWD TO ACROSS GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND S FROM THOSE COUNTRIES TO 10N. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER THOSE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ONLY CONCENTRATION AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE IS THAT WHICH OCCURRING JUST TO ITS S IN RELATION TO THE ITCZ...OTHERWISE ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER SOME PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 105W FROM 06N-14N MOVING W AT ABOUT 13 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPINGING ON THIS WAVE FROM THE N AND NE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 116W FROM 09N-16N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS CONFIRMED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SSMI TPW ANIMATION. THE 700 MB MODEL WINDS FROM THE GFS INDICATE A VERY EVIDENT WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO A NW TO SE ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE WAVE NEAR 08N113W. THIS COMBINATION IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG INTENSITY TYPE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 139W FROM 06N-14N MOVING W AT 16 KT. SSMI TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE 700 MB WIND AND STREAMLINE FIELDS FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THIS WAVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THIS WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 10N132W. SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 06N98W TO 08N109W TO 08N120W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N132W ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND RATHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AT 10N132W WITH IS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN COVERING THE AREA TO THE S OF 23N...AND W OF 116W. A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION NEAR 16N105.5W AND IS LIFTING NNW. A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM 28N130W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE AREA AT 23N141W. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDS WWD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SW TO NEAR 30N129W. A SMALL MID-LEVEL LOW JUST SW OF THE RIDGE IS NEAR 28N121W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 19N119W TO 15N115W...AND TO AN UPPER LOW AT 08N113W AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N W OF 123W...BETWEEN 115W-123W N OF 17N E OF 115W. THE UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA AND NW BELIZE DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W IS CHANNELING DRIER AIR S TO NEAR 10N DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE AT 16N106W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NWWD ACROSS S AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA AND NW BELIZE ALONG WITH THIS RIDGING IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 34N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH AT 22N116W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 09N-15N W OF 136W DUE TO THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ALTIMETER DATA FROM MON AFTERNOON REVEALED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 01N134W TO 01S108W TO 03N93W. ANOTHER SET OF WILL SPREAD TO N OF THE EQUATOR INCREASING THE SWELL AREA TO S OF A LINE FROM 02S136W TO 02N110W TO 04N93W BY EARLY WED EVENING. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 9 FT BY WED EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 12 UTC MON CONFIRMED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 89W WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 87W. IN ADDITION...AT 00 UTC LAST NIGHT SHIP WITH CALLER ID "V7ZG9" AT A LOCATION OF 10N87W REPORTED SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. THIS ONGOING EPISODE OF GAP WINDS IS FORECAST BY THE NWP MODELS TO LAST INTO EARLY ON WED. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT E SWELLS TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION...AND MIX WITH SW SWELLS AS THEY REACH AS FAR W AS 111W BY EARLY WED EVENING. RESULTANT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO START UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO 9 FT..AND BUILDING TO 10 FT EARLY ON TUE. THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THIS WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS UP AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THAT AREA USHERING IN ANOTHER EPISODE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT HOLDS INTO WED MAINTAINING THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. $$ AGUIRRE