000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 87W N OF 08N TO ACROSS EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND N TO CENTRAL HONDURAS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSM TPW ANIMATION SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT CONFINED TO S OF 12N. THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA HAS FILTERED DRIER AIR SWD TO ACROSS GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND S TO 10N. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER THOSE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE IS THAT WHICH OCCURRING JUST TO ITS S WITH THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 100W FROM 07N TO 14N MOVING W AT ABOUT 13 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPINGING ON THIS WAVE FROM THE N AND NE. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 115W FROM 07N-15N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS CONFIRMED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SSMI TPW ANIMATION. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE WAVE AT 08N113W. THIS COMBINATION IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG INTENSITY TYPE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 10N- 15N. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 138W FROM 06N-14N MOVING W AT 16 KT. SSMI TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE 700 MB WIND AND STREAMLINE FIELDS FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THIS WAVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AT 10N132W. SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W LATE TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N88W TO 07N100W TO 05N107W TO 10N115W TO 08N125W TO 06N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N132W ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A RATHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AT 10N132W WITH IS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN COVERING THE AREA TO THE S OF 23N...AND W OF 116W. A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION NEAR 16N105.5W AND IS LIFTING NNW. A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM 28N130W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE AREA AT 22N141W. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDS WWD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND SW TO NEAR 30N129W. A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW JUST SW OF THE RIDGE IS NEAR 28N121W WITH A TROUGH SSE TO 19N120W TO 15N115W...AND TO AN UPPER LOW AT 08N113W AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N W OF 123W...BETWEEN 115W AND 123W N OF 17N E OF 115W. THE UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA DESCRIBED TO ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS CHANNELING DRIER AIR S TO NEAR 10N DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE AT 16N105.5W. BROAD SCALE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NWWD ACROSS S AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NE GUATEMALA AND THIS RIDGING IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY S OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 33N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 24N119W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS AT 22N115W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 09N-15N W OF 137W DUE TO THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASS AGAIN REVEALED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SW WATERS S OF LINE FROM 01N135W TO 03N97W. RE-ENFORCING SWELLS WILL BEING TO PASS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...EXPENDING THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS NORTHWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO... A SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT OCCURRED JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC CONFIRMS WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 89W WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 87W. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND 20 KT...PULSING BACK TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20KT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS GAP WIND EVENT. $$ AGUIRRE