000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221609 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 16N86W INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 08N86W. SSMI TPW INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED S OF 12N. MOST OF THE WAVE IS VOID OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W FROM 06N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 07N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 09N113W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 136W FROM 06N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE WAVE IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N85W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 08N97W TO 09N112W TO 07N125W TO 09N133W TO 08N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 07N139W EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHEASTWARD TO 20N131W AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA S OF 20N W OF 116. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR 29N125W AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N113W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W. A SECOND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N106W HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEAST MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 03N99W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 19N89W HAS A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 10N91W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE RIDGE...FROM 10N TO THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 100W...INCLUDING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ADDITIONAL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NORTHWESTWARD TO 09N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH E OF 98W...INCLUDING PANAMA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AND ITCZ BETWEEN 10N AND 25N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE REGION OF THESE TRADE WINDS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK TROUGHING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SW WATERS S OF LINE FROM 01N135W TO 03N97W. RE-ENFORCING SWELLS WILL BEING TO PASS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...EXPENDING THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS NORTHWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO... A SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT OCCURRED JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC CONFIRMS WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 89W WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 87W. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND 20 KT...PULSING BACK TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20KT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS GAP WIND EVENT. $$ LATTO