000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUN 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED N OF 070N ALONG 82W CROSSING WESTERN PANAMA TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS PASSING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 06N ALONG 94W...AND CONTINUES W AT 12 KT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N111W TO 15N110W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N131W TO 13N1310 AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 07N78W TO 07N87W...THEN TURNS SW TO 06N95W WHERE THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 09N127W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N76W TO 07N93W...WITHIN 75 NM OF 11N103W...AND FROM 01-11N W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SW NEVADA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 26N128W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM W TEXAS AT 30N101W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 18.5N117W...THEN TURNS SSE TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 09N111W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N137W TO 29N143W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 32N138W TO 29N142W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 18.5N144W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING E TO 18N130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 26-29N WHERE PREVIOUS CONVECTION DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 17N W OF 110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE TROPICS AT 12N122W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. THIS RIDGE IS IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 131W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 04N73W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST NEAR 11N92W. THIS RIDGE IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES...AND IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHILE SOME IS ADVECTED SW ACROSS THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N133W WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOW LEVELS W OF 125W TO N OF THE ITCZ. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT OBSERVED FROM 10- 15N W OF 131W IN MIXING NE TRADE SWELL AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 05N TO THE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS SOUTHERLY SWELL TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95-140W ON WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES WITH THE WESTERLY EXTENT REACHING NEAR 10N92W BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE W AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SSW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ALONG A SWATCH FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 92-112W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT SURGES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH MORNING THIS WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-20 KT FLOW OBSERVED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS IS SUPPORTING 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE OPEN FETCH AREAS TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. $$ NELSON