000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUN 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 90W N OF 09N TO ACROSS EASTERN GUATEMALA MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-12N. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 106W FROM 05N-13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 13.5N104W. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED THIS WAVE. THE 1742 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY DEPICTED A NE TO SE SHIFT IN DIRECTION OF MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 126W FROM 05N-13N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 140W FROM 08N-15N MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS UNDER VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 08N79W...AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 08N90W TO 08N101W. THE ITCZ FORMS JUST W OF THE WAVE ALONG 106W...AND EXTENDS WNW TO 10N117W...THEN TURNS SW TO JUST W OF THE WAVE ALONG 126W AND CONTINUES TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 07N140W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-87W...AND S OF 05N W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-82W...FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W-94W...FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 121W-126W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 131W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N97W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY LIFTING NEWD NEAR 27N126W...AND ANOTHER ONE OVER FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 110W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS FARTHER S NEAR 13N123W. AN UPPER-LEVEL-TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 20N112W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH RESULTANT DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 109W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 110W- 128W AND N OF 16N W OF 128W. NLY FLOW IS OVER SE MEXICO...THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 91W-100W DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N103W...AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 87W...WHILE AN ANTICYCLONE IS JUST S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 89W. THE FLOW PATTERN PATTERN BETWEEN BOTH THESE FEATURES IS CREATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1020 NEAR 31N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO NEAR 20N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N-16N W OF 115W AS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELLS WITHIN THIS AREA. THE 1020 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SE SWELLS MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS S OF A LINE FROM 00N140W TO 04N120W TO 04N102W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AT A FORECAST LOCATION S OF A LINE FROM 01N128W TO 01N120W TO 03.4S105W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 FT. THE RESULTANT ENE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD REACHING TO NEAR 105W SUN. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY ON MON N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94W-96W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NE SWELL WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE W OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND VICINITY. $$ AGUIRRE