000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI JUN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 03N96W TO 15N96W. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT 
GENERATED BY A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED BY THIS 
INTERACTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 02N121W TO 15N121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N84W TO 09N102W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N115W TO 04N123W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 390 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W 
AND 122W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRES OF 1024 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 19N115W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER 
THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 125W. ISOLATED 
AREAS OF SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADES 
PER A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES. THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OVER THE 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TRADES 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF SEAS TO 8 FT CAN 
BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY 11N TO 14N AND W OF 135W.
  
SE SWELLS MIXED WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE  
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT S OF LINE FROM 03.4S94W TO 
02N115W TO 02N121W TO 00N126W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVERAGE OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL 
SHRINK. BY SUN MORNING SEAS TO 8 FT WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 02N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL 
JET INTO THE FAR EPAC AND A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE GAP WINDS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW 
GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN 
PACIFIC HAS HELPED GENERATE FRESH STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
GAP WINDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND 
FURTHER FROM THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP FOR WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL 
ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE 
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FAR EPAC WILL HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER 
ROUND OF GAP WINDS. 

$$ 
AL